Snatching Defeat
Today I read pieces written by Jen Gerson and Matt Gurney about the failures of governments in Canada in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Of the two, Jen’s piece bothered me the most. She makes the unfathomable logical leap that the only reason Australia and New Zealand dealt with the pandemic better than six of our own provinces here in Canada is because they were willing to violate human rights. Since we’re not willing to put up with that here, since we’re not willing to become a militarized police state, “Canada was probably always screwed.” Jen admitted on Twitter that this was a rant, so I’ll have to read it as that and accept that for the purposes of the rant, logic was thrown out the window.
Matt points out that the current third wave in Ontario is an unequivocal policy failure. But in the middle there were some charitable interpretations of policy choices, and that’s where I have to hard disagree. There is no need for a charitable interpretation.
What both Jen and Matt overlook is that the Ontario Government had a policy success on its hands. There was a golden opportunity to control this pandemic and avoid the second and third waves as we have experienced and are experiencing them.
August, 2020. “Ontario reports fewer than 100 new COVID-19 cases per day for full week”
For the first time in several months, Ontario health officials recorded fewer than 100 new cases of COVID-19 daily for one whole week.
Provincial health officials confirmed 79 additional cases of the novel coronavirus on Sunday after 70 new cases were logged on Saturday.
That was the moment of opportunity. The opportunity for the Ontario government under Doug Ford to pivot and start managing the pandemic proactively, instead of reacting to it.
It was an opportunity to tweak the testing and tracing program. It was the single opportunity to form response teams that would respond to every single positive case, identify the potential spread, to quarantine and contain it.
That capability was well within this province’s means. It required a recognition of the opportunity presented, a flexible mindset and a little injection of funding to make it happen.
Doug Ford chose to do none of that. He chose to just reopen the province and hope things would work out. They did not. He rang the alarm bells on Sep. 19, 2020 and finally, kinda, shut things down Boxing Day. An inexplicable gap of inaction of over three months from alarm to concrete action. (Sort of)
For three interminable months, many of us watched in horror as cases continued to climb and the government did essentially, nothing. It was charted by many people tracking Ontario’s failures on a daily basis.
(Chart courtesy of the incredible Dr. Kwan)
I have to refuse to accept that the 4,500 citizens of Ontario that died of COVID-19 since September, 2020 was inevitable. That the only way to prevent 4,500 dead and counting was a heavy handed militarized police state. That doesn’t fly with me at all.
We had victory (of a sorts) in our grasp. And Doug Ford chose defeat.
Why? To understand this requires some conjecture about the motivations of the Ford Government. Managing a public health crises comes down to a single choice. Do you try to save as many lives as possible? Yes or No.
If Yes, you strive to do that very thing. If no, you have other priorities that are causing you tip away from saving lives. You see a need to balance priorities. Lives in exchange for something else.
What was that something else? I believe that something else was “the economy.” Premier Doug Ford and members of his team constantly referred to this need.
Number of results where Doug Ford talks about the need to save the economy on Twitter, I honestly lost count.
Number of results where Doug Ford acknowledges the deaths caused by COVID-19. Three.
Not convinced? Here’s Doug Ford flat out stating he is willing to trade lives for the sake of the economy. In pursuit of “balance”.
I’m trying to navigate right down the middle; balancing Ontarians’ health & the economy.
Even the Chief Medical Officer of Health was told he had to balance health and safety with the needs of the economy.
He’s the Chief Medical Officer of Health. Not the Chief Medical Officer of the Economy. Telling the Chief Medical Officer of Health to balance the economy with health handicaps him. Prevents him from doing the very job he was hired to do.
The Doug Ford government made a deliberate choice to trade lives for the sake of the economy. This was a deliberate policy choice. This was not the choice of a government trying to save lives.
And the absolute most damning argument of them all. Doug Ford chose to delay the second lockdown because,
“We can’t do it overnight and leave these people with inventory, especially restaurants with food inventory. We need to give them an opportunity to get this done.”
Doug Ford traded the health of Ontarians, traded the lives of Ontarians so that food wouldn’t spoil in inventory. He traded lives for a head of lettuce. For a side of beef. For a container of cream. Doug Ford valued your life and the life of your loved ones less than food stored in a refrigerator.
And in the end, the Doug Ford government still chose poorly. The most succinct rebuttal comes from Dr. Paul Fairie (PhD — Political Science),
Controlling COVID and getting the economy back on track are not competing tasks. They are the same task.
Doug Ford traded lives to balance the needs of the economy, and in doing so, he tanked the economy.
From Fortune Magazine:
New Zealanders have gone on a spending spree since the nation eliminated community transmission of COVID-19 in May and then successfully contained sporadic outbreaks.
Doug Ford so wanted this for Ontario. He thought he could get there just by opening up. Let people shop! Let retailers and restaurants exhaust their inventory!
But people were scared. Closures and limits kept being imposed and reimposed. No one really knew what was going on anymore.
Doug Ford traded 4,500 lives and counting for the economy. And he failed to save the economy. So he traded over 4,500 lives for nothing.
And as of August 2020 he had the opportunity to save both. It was very doable, even in this underachieving nation of ours. Keeping the pandemic under control was within this government’s capabilities.
Doug Ford could have saved lives and saved the economy.
In the end he chose to save neither.
