Unpacking the Ontario Election

For such a snoozefest of an Election campaign where the result was foretold eons ago when the Ontario Liberals elected Steven Del Duca as their new leader, there’s still a lot to unpack and understand. We know the result, but what really happened and why did it happen?

To understand today, it is important to understand what happened in the 2018 election, the one where Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative party first took power. That moment was the end result of 15 years of Liberal Party rule. A period of time marked with notable and typical Liberal corruption, arrogance and entitlement. And against that, the Progressive Conservative party could not mount an effective challenge. Their campaign gaffes that torpedoed their own campaigns were quite comical, but of lasting impact.

All that Liberal arrogance and corruption could not be sustained, and Ontario finally had enough and finally tossed them in favour of the Progressive Conservatives. A Progressive Conservative party that was absorbed by the cult of Fordnation. The Ford family brand of politics is… well… it is downright bizarre and weird. It’s a strange mixture of abrasive assholery, folksy hick wisdom and charm. The Fords are like Hollywood highschool jocks from the movies. The somewhat likeable meathead idiots that you don’t want around too much, but they can be fun sometimes.

The 2018 election campaign was giftwrapped and sitting there waiting for the Progressive Conservatives to take it. And they almost blew it. It is quickly forgotten how gaffe prone Ford was during the campaign, and the nearly invisible NDP party started surging in support. Even though Ontario has three main political parties, the NDP are rarely seen as a viable option by the electorate, and their surge was nearly unprecedented. In the end, it wasn’t enough, Doug Ford managed to claim the prize despite all his stumbles, and Ontario had a Progressive Conservative government. A PC government elected for the simple fact that Ontario had finally had enough of the Liberals.

That lesson was lost on everyone. Especially on Doug Ford. Right out of the gate he was his typical abrasive moronic self. Cutting Toronto council in half, enacting and walking back policies, losing court challenges, causing a Teacher strike….

And then the COVID-19 pandemic happened. And something strange resulted. The Doug Ford history of asshole moronic incompetence was wiped clean. He was granted a fresh start. The pandemic saved his political ass. I have written much on this site about Doug Ford’s management of the pandemic, and this is what cleaved Ontario into two clear camps. The empathetic and the selfish. And there are a lot more selfish Ontarians than I like.

Enter the 2022 election campaign.

A lot happened all at once here. Or didn’t happen all at once.

The news media did not hold Doug Ford accountable for his leadership. This is an unpardonable and yet understandable sin. News media is a business, and the ideals it claims to uphold are all an illusion. The standards, rules and culture of corporate news causes them to give false balance, and I do believe there is a bias towards Conservative parties as the safe and normal state of affairs. Parties to the left are seen as risky radicals requiring more media oversight to hold them in check, and much of the news coverage reflects that bias.

Supriya Dwivedi reminds us of another important point. The Protecting Ontario Elections Act, which required use of the Notwithstanding Clause to violate Canadian’s right to freedom of expression silenced third party critics. They were banned from speaking out. By law.

Doug Ford used the law to unethically and immorally silence his critics. Were Doug Ford and the PCs hounded and castigated by an outraged news media for that? Nope. Was this a top story? Nope. Did the NDP and the Liberals make hay out of this and campaign on this? Nope.

During the election, Doug Ford and all Progressive Conservative candidates ran and hid away from the press and the electorate. They knew that opening their mouths and talking, and taking questions, would get them into trouble. So, they avoided that. Were Doug Ford and the PCs hounded and castigated by an outraged news media for that? Nope. Was this a top story? Nope. Did the NDP and the Liberals make hay out of this and campaign on this? Nope.

And this takes us to the failures of the NDP and the Liberal party campaigns.

Doug Ford’s faults were many, and they didn’t campaign against any of them. And they had a weak sauce campaign for what they were all about. They failed to give Ontarians a good reason to toss the Doug Ford government out, and they also failed to convince Ontarians of why they would be any better! That’s a two-strike ball game. There is no third strike. An effective election campaign points out the flaws of the current government and gives a solid reason why a party should be in government. Both the Liberals and the NDP failed to do either of those things.

I really have to fault Andrea Horwath and the NDP for that. They were a total disaster as an opposition. They failed in their obligation to challenge and hold Doug Ford to account. They were the Official Opposition and were largely absent from that role.

The most striking thing about the 2022 election is everything that didn’t happen that needed to. And that is reflected in the turnout. Ontarians did not show up to vote. The campaign was about nothing at all, therefore the election was about nothing at all, so there was no reason to vote. Voters had to manufacture the desire to vote themselves, for their own reasons. Yes, voters have a duty to inform themselves, but the information from the usual sources they rely on was totally absent.

Mike Moffat tweeted out a fascinating chart:

Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative party did not win a mandate in the 2018 election. Ontario didn’t vote Conservative as much as they voted “not the Liberals.” And that creates an interesting dynamic in the mood of the electorate. For the 2022 election, despite the unexpected pandemic granted clean slate that Doug Ford received, and the media whitewashing of his record, the PC party still lost 18% of their support. The NDP lost a whopping 42% of their support.

I don’t want to read too much into this. But it is curious that the main “Not the Liberals” party alternative failed to get more of a turnout. That this election garnered a historic low turnout, is a warning sign to all parties, especially the governing party. The majority of the electorate is apathetic. And apathy can quickly turn to anger, and that is dangerous territory for the party in power.

And that thought is the only silver lining I can glean out of this whole mess. Doug Ford might be on thinner ice than he thinks. And I don’t think another pandemic would save him this time.

P.S. Go read Robert Hiltz.